Mailbag: Yankees' pitching will be downfall

Sabathia won't be enough, as NY doesn't have arms to win World Series

Image: A.J. BurnettAP

A.J. Burnett hasn't shown the consistency to make him a postseason threat, NBCSports.com contributor Tony DeMarco says.

updated 3:42 p.m. ET Sept. 27, 2011

Tony DeMarco

Baseball Expert Tony DeMarco has been covering the big leagues since 1987, and been casting Hall of Fame ballots for the last 12 years. He answers questions weekly here:

Q: Do the Yankees have enough pitching to win the World Series? I'm concerned they will not be able to out-slug the teams from the National League, especially the Phillies.
? Matthew Bowler, New York

A: I have not been a strong believer in the Yankees rotation all season. Back in spring training, I thought they were an iffy playoffs proposition, primarily because of a lack of rotation strength behind CC Sabathia. But they're better than I thought, and finished with the AL's best record and No. 1 playoff seed.

It would be simplifying things to say that the Yankees' winning formula simply involves a highly potent offense building leads for an excellent bullpen to protect. After all, they are sixth in the AL in rotation ERA, and did get a 16-4-3.70 season from Ivan Nova, and a 12-8-3.62 year from Freddy Garcia ? besides more Sabathia excellence, of course.

That said, I don't like how the Yankees' rotation matches up with the Phillies', or even the Brewers'. And long before either of those two possibilities might occur, the Yankees are looking at a division-series matchup with a team that beat them 4-3 in their regular-season series, the Detroit Tigers.

Facing Justin Verlander twice in a short series will be a tall order. The Yankees also have hit left-handed pitching better than right-handed pitching this season, and the Tigers will feature an all right-handed playoff rotation, including a very-hot Doug Fister.

That contrasts the Texas Rangers, who will have at least two ? and possibly three lefties ? in their playoff rotation. Not coincidentally, the Yankees pounded on the Rangers in the regular-season, holding a 7-2 series edge with a +27 run differential.

The Rangers' home ballpark also is much more homer-friendly than Detroit's Comerica Park, and the Yankees rely on the long ball more than anybody.

The AL series matchups are going to be very important. Remember, if the Red Sox do survive and win the wild card, they beat the Yankees 12 of 18 times this season.

But more so than at any other time, the playoffs are about starting pitching. The most-dominant starting pitching usually translates to the World Series winner. And that's why it will be very hard for me to pick the Yankees to come through the AL playoffs, let alone win another World Series.

Q: Verlander is getting a lot of attention for the AL MVP Award, but how about the season his teammate, Miguel Cabrera, has put together?
? Brian, Ann Arbor, Mich.

A: I'm not a big proponent of pitchers' winning MVP awards, but there are legitimate exceptions to every rule. The last time the Tigers won it all, a closer ? Willie Hernandez ? was the AL Cy Young and MVP winner; and Hall of Fame closer Dennis Eckersley won both awards in 1992.

But for me, in both of those cases, there wasn't an outstanding position player MVP candidate, and that cleared the way for Hernandez and Eckersley. And that's not the case this season, when Cabrera, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jose Bautista have had MVP-type seasons.

Hernandez got 16 of 28 first-place votes in 1984, when amazingly, Royals closer Dan Quisenberry finished third overall in the MVP balloting. That left Minnesota's Kent Hrbek (.311-27-107) as the highest finisher among position players, while the Tigers' Kirk Gibson finished sixth and Alan Trammell ninth.

Eck also won easily for the 1992 Oakland A's, getting 15 of the 28 first-place votes ? including mine ? and outdistancing Kirby Puckett (.329, 19 HRs, 110 RBIs, 17 SB, Gold Glove), while three key hitters from the World Series-champion Blue Jays ? Joe Carter, Roberto Alomar and Dave Winfield ? totaled nine first-place votes between them.


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Source: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/44689370/ns/sports-baseball/

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